Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has has something to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
