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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a ceasefire agreement developed with US officials could be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives are expected to submit the terms to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, particularly because Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy said that the US Congress is expected to vote on defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Moscow, leading to summit-level talks as soon as this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Some of them pertain to binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, voted on and endorsed by the United States Congress,” the president commented to journalists. He stated that these assurances would “reflect article 5” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, American representatives did not provide specific details regarding the likely contents of the security package or the consequences if Moscow attempted to seize more land following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the United States does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European nations said in a unified declaration that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting maritime security, including through operating inside its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these actions would serve as guarantees equivalent to NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is near agreeing to the kind of arrangement under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Russian government said it had not seen the specifics of the proposals on security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that Russia would not agree to forces of Nato countries operating in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts remains the territorial question. A key demand centers on Ukraine relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it still holds, while Ukraine wants to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. As is known, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy said following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, led by two senior advisors, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the resulting zone becoming “a free economic zone.” Moscow has indicated it could use internal security formations instead of the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ is not controlled by Moscow. Not legally or in practice do we accept the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” stated Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution such as a special economic area might be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a national vote. The major impediment is expected to arise when the plans are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face precisely the situation we are experiencing on our plane right now – turbulence,” said the president, recording the comments as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply more weapons if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a fair request from us to the Americans,” he concluded.